FNUS75 KPUB 090442
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1042 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY MOIST EAST WIND OF 8 TO 13 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 3AM MDT THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO EAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS DIFFICULT. A FRONT
WILL HOVER NEAR THE FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT SPOT
FORECAST HAS THE FIRE JUST STAYING NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS
REMAINING EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITIES REMAINING
ABOVE 12 PERCENT. IF THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FIRE...THEN
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

SINCE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN FRONTAL POSITION CAN RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WINDS...FEEL FREE TO SUBMIT ANOTHER SPOT
IN THE EARLY MORNING.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50 PERCENT) UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(66 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL
                    2400...THEN AREAS OF SMOKE AFTER 0100 UNTIL
                    0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS 9-13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH BY 0600.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    NORTH AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(50 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN BECOMING
                    EAST AT 10 TO 15 BY 1100..
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 1700.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLYN
REQUESTED BY...ROCCO SNART
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110608.SHELL.02/PUB