FNUS72 KMHX 102023 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 423 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1635 EDT ON JUNE 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL TO THE SOUTH LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF SMOKE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO 8 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............21 28 33 33 34 34 31 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................85 83 81 78 76 74 73 RH..................60 63 65 74 79 84 89 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 13 S 12 S 11 SW 10 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....17 16 15 15 15 10 10 LVORI...............1 1 3 3 4 4 5 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 11 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH LATE. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............26 23 24 25 25 26 WEATHER COV.........AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................72 76 81 85 87 86 RH..................90 79 67 59 55 57 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 S 9 S 10 S 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 LVORI...............5 4 3 2 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH...DECREASING TO 9 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............27 28 25 21 18 21 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................85 80 77 76 75 73 RH..................59 69 79 82 82 87 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 11 S 11 S 10 S 10 SW 9 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 15 15 15 15 LVORI...............1 1 3 4 4 5 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 5 5 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800-5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 13 MPH. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............25 28 30 33 35 48 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................73 79 85 85 85 85 RH..................87 72 59 59 59 59 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 8 SW 8 SW 9 S 11 S 12 S 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 20 20 LVORI...............5 3 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 4 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...FREDERICK REQUESTED BY...GARY CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110610.PAINS.02/MHX