FNUS75 KPUB 101613
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL COMPLEX...LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1013 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WE HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TODAY...AND IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT MAKE IT
EAST OF THE PINON CANYON MANEUVERING SITE...ALTHOUGH IF ANY STORMS
DO DEVELOP IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY COULD SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO THE SHELL COMPLEX AREA CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME
STRONG GUSTS.

SATURDAY THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE STORMS IN THE
FIRE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THERE COULD BE SOME
WETTING RAINS BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST EXACTLY WHERE THAT
COULD OCCUR...BUT THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LOOKING LIKE DRY AND HOT DAYS.  AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 90.  IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH.  IF THESE
CONDITIONS OCCUR A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED.

IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY WILL STILL HAVE VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
AND VERY WARM TEMPS...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(30 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 1400 THEN EAST
                    10-15 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40 PERCENT) UNTIL 0300 THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (80 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 2.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(59 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS 13-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...EVENSON
REQUESTED BY...ROCCO SNART
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110610.SHELL.01/PUB