FNUS72 KJAX 111226
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA- FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
826 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0721 EDT ON JUNE 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND TRACKS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FIRE AREA BUT MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST OF YOUR
POSITION. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR THE FIRE...HOWEVER
...THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED CELL POPPING THROUGH
THE CAP. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INTO THE FIRE ARE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN WIND SPEEDS.

A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY. THIS WILL KEEP RH LEVELS ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SORRY FOR THE DELAY BUT I WAS UPDATING THE FORECAST WHEN YOUR REQUEST
WAS SENT AND COULD NOT COMPLETE THIS UNTIL I WAS FINISHED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL
                    LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-7100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 2 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....76.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........28     20     20     20     20     20
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  NONE   NONE
TEMP............69     81     89     92     92     89
RH..............100    75     51     41     41     50
20 FT WIND......E 1    E 3    E 6    E 7    E 8    SE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.       5             10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1900   1900   4500   7100   7100   5400
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 3   SE 3   SE 8   E 10   E 10   SE 9
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-2000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........20     29     29     24     42     42
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............87     81     75     72     70     68
RH..............50     64     74     80     84     92
20 FT WIND......SE 9   SE 8   SE 6   SE 3   SE 1   SE 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5400   3800   3800   2000   200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 9   SE 7   SE 7   SE 6   S 6    S 6
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7700 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 2 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....17.

$$
FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110611.IMPAS.01/JAX