FNUS72 KJAX 121157 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA- FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 729 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0716 EDT ON JUNE 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ERC VALUES NEAR 35. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA ON MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLY INLAND AREAS TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. THIS WILL KEEP RH LEVELS ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....30. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........42 25 25 35 35 35 WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............72 85 93 97 96 94 RH..............99 67 45 36 36 43 20 FT WIND......S 2 SW 1 W 2 NW 3 W 5 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1800 1800 5100 8400 8400 6300 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 6 NW 6 NW 5 NW 5 NW 3 W 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 30 30 30 LAL.............1 1 1 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST AROUND 3 MPH INCREASING TO 5 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....5. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........35 55 55 55 41 41 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............91 85 79 76 74 72 RH..............43 54 69 80 92 99 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 SW 3 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 5 10 MIX HGT (FT)....6300 4200 4200 2200 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..W 3 S 5 S 5 SW 9 W 12 W 12 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 0 0 LAL.............3 3 3 3 1 1 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 102. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....37. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...WOLF REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110612.IMPAS.01/JAX