FNUS72 KMHX 121023 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 623 AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0635 EDT ON JUNE 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FIRE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. S TO SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND EASTERN NC THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE COAST THIS EVENING. SHOULD THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............42 31 33 36 39 49 WEATHER COV.........AREAS CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................71 77 85 88 86 84 RH..................97 79 61 55 59 65 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 S 11 S 11 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 16 17 18 20 LVORI...............7 4 3 1 1 3 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............62 74 79 87 93 88 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................78 78 74 71 70 67 RH..................79 81 89 97 99 99 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 11 S 10 S 9 SW 8 SW 8 W 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 15 15 15 15 LVORI...............4 4 5 7 8 8 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 3 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............85 92 80 64 52 47 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................67 73 77 80 81 78 RH..................99 86 70 60 55 56 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 8 NW 8 N 10 N 11 N 11 N 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 20 20 20 LVORI...............9 6 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 4 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...LONKA REQUESTED BY...DAVID GREATHOUSE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110612.PAINS.01/MHX