FNUS72 KMHX 122021 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 421 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1640 EDT ON JUNE 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST MONDAY. IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 16 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............21 36 47 61 80 93 81 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................84 78 78 74 73 73 73 RH..................64 76 78 88 90 90 90 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 8 S 8 S 7 SW 5 SW 5 SW 4 W 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 5 5 LVORI...............1 3 4 4 6 6 6 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 3 4 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-3600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 17 MPH. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............68 68 66 65 63 46 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................73 74 77 80 80 78 RH..................89 86 73 65 62 62 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 5 W 7 NW 9 N 10 N 11 N 11 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 15 20 15 LVORI...............5 4 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3 3 4 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-3000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............25 10 18 29 37 38 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................76 73 70 68 66 65 RH..................65 70 76 83 90 89 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 9 N 8 N 7 NE 6 NE 5 N 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 10 LVORI...............3 3 4 5 6 6 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 4 5 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6900-8200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 13 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............39 40 40 38 37 36 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................65 68 74 79 81 80 RH..................91 78 63 51 47 49 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 6 N 6 N 7 N 6 N 6 NE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 LVORI...............6 4 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...AUSTIN REQUESTED BY...DAVID GREATHOUSE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110612.PAINS.02/MHX