FNUS75 KPUB 131551
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR CALLIE MARIE   BEAR SPRINGS...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
951 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SURFACE ON THE WILDFIRE TODAY.  WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES...WHICH WERE ALREADY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AT 0923 MDT...WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO EXTREMELY LOW
LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY 0 TO 3 PERCENT.  HAINES VALUES REMAIN
HIGH AT 6...SO THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH
WILL CONTINUE.  MODEST RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BEHIND
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES.  HOWEVER...DUE TO A SMALL THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...IT WILL ALSO
POSE THE ADDED THREAT OF ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND MAINLY
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....92-97F.
MIN HUMIDITY........0-3 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
                    POSSIBLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 20000 FT AGL AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60F.
MAX HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS 13-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......18500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2000...THEN FAIR UNTIL
                    2100...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN
                    ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
                    GUSTY WINDS BUT LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....87-92F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 17500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110613.CALLI.01/PUB