FNUS75 KPUB 131636
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCKETT...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

GUSTY WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WILDFIRE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND HAINES
VALUES HIGH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BURN SITE WILL BE UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
RATHER POOR RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BURN SITE.  THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
ON THE FIRE WILL BE TO SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE SO SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49F.
MAX HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13000 FT AGL UNTIL 2200. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2300.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    2300...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 0700. 13500 FT AGL
                    AFTER 0900.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110613.DUCKE.01/PUB