FNUS73 KDLH 151152 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 652 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2108 CDT ON JUNE 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE FIRE LOCATION WILL BE SITUATED ON THE EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN TODAY. EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ELY AREA/FIRE...RECEIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRETHS UP TO A TENTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IF THE MAIN AREA OF FORCING SHIFTS AT ALL TO THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVELS CAN SATURATE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS LEAD TO THE DRIER SOLUTION. LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASED MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN IN THE VICINITY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUN IS SHOWING FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON /AFTER 1400/ AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. HOWEVER...IF SKIES CLEAR WITH THE DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THE RH WILL BE LOWER THAN FORECAST. DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE HUMIDITY SO VARIABLE TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RH VALUES. A POINT SOUNDING FOR KELO SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 2300. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING 12 TO 16 MPH AFTER 1000...THEN DECREASING TO 8 MPH AROUND SUNSET. MIXING HEIGHT.......1850 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6650 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21300) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (140700). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............56 62 65 68 64 62 RH..............70 60 53 51 60 68 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 8 12 13 14 10 20 FT WIND GUST.7 14 16 22 24 18 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 30 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH BECOMING EAST 2 TO 4 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1450 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (104600) DECREASING TO FAIR (19100) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............59 56 55 54 52 51 RH..............67 74 83 85 87 84 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE E 20 FT WIND SPD..8 6 5 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.15 8 6 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (35800) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (96100) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............51 60 65 69 71 70 RH..............85 64 56 51 50 52 20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 1 1 1 2 20 FT WIND GUST. $$ FORECASTER...AMANDA REQUESTED BY...MARK HALE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110614.HORSE.02/DLH