FNUS72 KJAX 141159 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA- FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 759 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0733 EDT ON JUNE 14. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE FIRE AREA TODAY. THIS IN TURN WILL DRIVE DOWN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DURING HE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT LOWER THAN FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE FIRE FRONT DUE TO DRYING FROM THE FIRE ITSELF. THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE STRONG SINKING AIR IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY WHICH WILL TEND TO CAP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... HOWEVER...THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL TOUCH OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH MANAGES TO PUNCH THROUGH THE CAP MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY BE EXPERIENCED IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 100. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....86. TIME (EDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........26 26 26 29 29 29 WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS ISOLD WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TSTM TEMP............75 88 96 100 99 97 RH..............100 68 45 34 31 37 20 FT WIND......W 6 NW 7 NW 9 NW 10 NW 10 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 20 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1700 1700 5000 8300 8300 5000 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 9 NW 9 NW 14 NW 17 NW 17 NW 15 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 73. MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 1 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....2. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........29 27 27 27 11 11 WEATHER COV.....ISOLD WEATHER TYPE....TSTM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............94 87 82 79 76 74 RH..............37 49 62 72 80 85 20 FT WIND......W 9 N 7 NE 6 E 3 E 2 E 1 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....5000 1700 1700 1000 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 15 N 10 N 10 NE 7 E 3 E 3 LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 99. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 8900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH NEAR 1 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....114. $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110614.IMPAS.01/JAX