FNUS73 KDLH 161130
FWSDLH

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE ISLAND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1939 CDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE
FOUND TODAY...MAINLY BEFORE 1400. SKIES MAY BREAK UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER SUNSET WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 8
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20
MPH FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

.EXTEDNED...
EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AN CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING OVER ALBERTA CANADA WILL RESULT IN AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO RAINFALL
AT THE BURN LOCATION. ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT TO RESOLVE DETAILS IN
TIMING AND PRECISE TRACK...MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKS EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO REACH THE FIRE BY MID-WEEK.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AFTER 1400.
                    AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4550 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (39200).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............55     58     61     64     69     68
RH..............96     75     67     58     52     56
20 FT WIND DIR..E      E      E      E      E      SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2      2      2      3      6      4
20 FT WIND GUST.                            10     6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    PATCHY FOG AFTER 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-52.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6300).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
TEMP............65     59     54     51     48     51
RH..............67     83     97     98     100    100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE     SE     SE     E      E      SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3      3      2      1      1      1
20 FT WIND GUST.6

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
                    IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5750 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (15500) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (126300).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
TEMP............52     60     67     71     74     73
RH..............89     64     53     46     44     45
20 FT WIND DIR..E      E      SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1      7      10     12     13     12
20 FT WIND GUST.              16     18     20     16

$$
FORECASTER...AMANDA
REQUESTED BY...MARK HALE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110615.HORSE.01/DLH