FNUS72 KILM 151819
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR AMSTEP EXERCISE...NOAA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
219 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1413 EDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL RETREAT OFF THE
COAST THURSDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
THAT ALONG WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THAT WILL INCREASE IN WAKE
OF THE WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE THE RISK OF STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WHICH MAY LEAD TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1000-1700 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 14
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............20     33     43     50     64     69
WEATHER COV.........                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................80     77     74     72     71     70
RH..................51     56     67     74     78     81
20 FT WIND..........SE 4   S 5    S 4    S 3    S 4    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      10     5      5      5      10

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-4600 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............77     76     75     74     73     73
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................70     72     76     79     81     81
RH..................82     81     74     68     65     68
20 FT WIND..........S 6    S 5    S 7    S 10   S 10   S 11
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     15     15     20     20

$$
FORECASTER...33
REQUESTED BY...STEPHEN KEEBLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20110615.AMSTE.02/ILM