FNUS72 KJAX 151912
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1454 EDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING DUE TO
LOW RHS AND HIGH ERC VALUES AND DISPERSIONS...

.DISCUSSION...LOW HUMIDITIES AND HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS PROGRESSING
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL NASSAU
AND DUVAL COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE FIRE SITE BETWEEN 9 AND 10 MPH. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
WEAK OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM SMOKE PLUMES MAY CREATE SMALLER SCALE
OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD CREATE SUDDEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
                    AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....3.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNIGHT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........70     70     70     70     70     70
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE AREAS  AREAS  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM SMOKE  SMOKE  TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............94     87     81     78     75     73
RH..............39     55     70     81     92     100
20 FT WIND......NE 7   E 3    E 3    SE 3   S 3    S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4900   1700   1700   1000   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 13  E 8    E 8    SE 7   S 7    S 7
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........70     70     70     70     70     70
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     76     88     96     99     98
RH..............100    94     60     43     33     34
20 FT WIND......S 3    SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 8   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   1900   1900   3500   5100   5100
TRANSPORT WIND..S 7    S 9    S 9    SW 12  SW 13  SW 13
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...ENYEDI
REQUESTED BY...PETE MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110615.IMPAS.01/JAX