FNUS72 KJAX 151609 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR RACE POND...GEMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1209 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1154 EDT ON JUNE 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THE SMOKE PLUME TO THE SOUTH. THAT LOW IS GOING TO DISSIPATE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE SMOKE PLUME WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE OVER NIGHT EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARD CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMILITY'S WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE... HOWEVER...WITH A LARGE FIRE LIKE THIS YOU CAN EXPECT RH'S TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE NEAR THE FIRE FRONT DUE TO DRYING FROM THE FIRE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F TO 110F. THE SEA BREEZE WILL TRY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING WEST OF INTERSTATE 16. IF IT DOES SO IT SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16:00 AND 20:00 EDT BEFORE IT DOES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH THE INVERSION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AND DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN THE AREA THIS IS LIKELY TO BE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ARCHING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1700...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 13 TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....84. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........21 46 46 46 WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS AREAS CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE RNSHWR TEMP............96 100 99 96 RH..............42 31 32 41 20 FT WIND......N 9 N 13 N 13 NE 10 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4600 7300 7300 4500 TRANSPORT WIND..N 13 N 17 N 17 NE 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 30 LAL.............1 1 1 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....4. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........46 75 75 36 43 43 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP............94 87 81 78 76 74 RH..............41 55 67 75 83 91 20 FT WIND......NE 8 E 5 E 5 SE 3 SE 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4500 1700 1700 1000 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 16 E 12 E 12 SE 9 SE 8 SE 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 10 10 10 LAL.............3 2 2 1 1 1 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 97. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....51. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...ALLEN ROBINSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110615.RACEP.01/JAX