FNUS72 KJAX 151243 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR WAVELY...CAMDEN EMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 843 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0832 EDT ON JUNE 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO ENTRAIN SMOKE FROM NUMEROUS FIRES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LEADING TO LOW VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF SMOKE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FIRE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ALONG THE FIRE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH STRONG SINKING MOTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE THERE IS A STRONG CAP ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ANYTHING THAT PUSHES THROUGH THAT CAP HAS THE CAPABILITY TO BE STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP IT IS LIKELY TO BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ARCHING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 98. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1700...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4700 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....80. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........28 28 28 39 39 WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS S CHC WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TSTORM TEMP............81 91 96 97 96 RH..............92 57 41 35 42 20 FT WIND......E 1 NE 6 N 10 N 12 NE 12 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....2300 4800 4800 7300 7300 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 6 NE 12 NE 12 N 17 NE 17 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 74. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-2200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....6. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT EARLY. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........39 30 30 30 42 42 WEATHER COV.....S CHC AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP............92 86 81 79 77 75 RH..............47 61 72 79 86 93 20 FT WIND......E 9 SE 8 SE 7 SE 6 SE 6 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4700 2200 2200 1300 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..NE 17 SE 15 SE 15 SE 12 SE 9 SE 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 0 10 10 LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 95. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH NEAR 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....56. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...MARK CREWS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110615.WAVEL.01/JAX