FNUS75 KBOU 170150 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR PINE CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 749 PM MDT THU JUN 16 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BURN AREA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BRING STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 10200-11200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....51. MAX HUMIDITY........56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5-13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 7-13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8600-9600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74. MIN HUMIDITY........13%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 11200-12200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR PINECREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/16-19 48 10 2 73 19 SW10 17 3 2 SW22 5500 W10 56915 F 06/16-20 48 10 2 69 23 S 6 6 3 2 SW25 4282 W 5 29130 P 06/16-21 39 10 2 65 29 S 2 2 3 2 SW29 3063 CALM 1346 P 06/16-22 39 10 2 62 33 SW 2 2 3 2 SW33 2469 W 3 4388 P 06/16-23 39 10 2 59 37 SW 5 5 3 2 SW38 1875 W 7 7429 P 06/17-00 49 10 2 57 40 SW 8 13 3 1 SW40 1281 W 9 10471 P 06/17-01 49 10 2 56 44 SW10 17 3 1 SW40 1049 W12 9370 P 06/17-02 49 10 2 54 47 W13 21 3 1 W38 817 W13 8268 P 06/17-03 49 10 2 52 49 W14 22 3 1 W36 585 W14 7167 P 06/17-04 49 10 2 52 50 W13 21 3 1 W33 638 W14 7308 P 06/17-05 49 10 2 52 50 W10 17 2 1 SW32 691 W13 7449 P 06/17-06 50 0 0 52 50 W 8 13 2 1 SW32 744 W12 7590 P 06/17-07 50 0 0 54 45 W 6 6 2 1 SW33 2230 W15 38082 P 06/17-08 50 0 0 58 39 NW 3 3 2 1 W35 3716 W18 68573 G 06/17-09 50 0 0 62 34 N 2 2 2 1 W35 5202 W22 99065 G 06/17-10 50 0 0 66 29 NW 2 2 2 1 W33 7069 W20 117212 V 06/17-11 50 0 0 69 26 NW 5 5 2 1 W32 8936 W18 135359 V 06/17-12 74 20 4 71 24 W 6 6 2 3 W30 10804 SW16 153506 E 06/17-13 74 20 4 73 23 W 7 7 2 3 SW28 11025 SW15 140189 V 06/17-14 74 20 4 73 22 W 7 7 2 3 SW24 11246 SW13 126872 V 06/17-15 74 20 4 74 22 W 7 7 2 3 SW23 11467 SW12 113556 V 06/17-16 74 20 4 74 21 W 7 7 2 3 SW26 10920 SW15 135729 V 06/17-17 74 20 4 74 22 S 7 7 2 3 SW32 10372 SW18 157903 E 06/17-18 74 20 4 74 22 S 7 7 2 3 SW37 9824 SW21 180077 E 06/17-19 74 20 4 72 24 S 7 7 2 3 SW39 8326 SW20 145231 V 06/17-20 74 20 4 69 28 SW 8 8 2 3 SW39 6827 W18 110385 V 06/17-21 74 20 4 65 33 W 8 13 2 3 SW39 5328 W16 75539 G 06/17-22 74 20 4 63 38 W 8 8 2 3 SW41 4624 W15 62907 G 06/17-23 74 20 4 60 44 W 7 7 2 3 SW44 3919 SW15 50274 F 06/18-00 73 5 1 58 49 W 6 6 2 1 SW45 3215 SW14 37642 P 06/18-01 73 5 1 56 51 W 5 5 2 1 SW44 2380 SW14 28426 P 06/18-02 73 5 1 54 53 NW 5 5 2 1 W40 1546 SW15 19211 P 06/18-03 73 5 1 53 53 NW 3 3 2 1 W37 711 SW16 9995 P 06/18-04 73 5 1 52 55 NW 3 3 2 1 W33 745 SW15 9880 P 06/18-05 73 5 1 51 56 W 3 3 2 1 W30 778 SW15 9765 P 06/18-06 73 0 0 51 54 SW 3 3 2 1 W26 811 SW14 9649 P 06/18-07 73 0 0 54 44 SW 5 5 2 1 W25 2823 SW16 48704 F 06/18-08 73 0 0 60 32 W 6 6 2 1 W25 4835 W18 87759 G 06/18-09 73 0 0 64 25 W 7 7 2 1 W23 6847 W22 126813 V 06/18-10 73 0 0 67 21 W 9 15 2 1 W18 8425 W20 141817 V 06/18-11 73 0 0 70 18 W12 18 2 1 SW14 10002 W18 156820 E 06/18-12 70 20 4 72 16 W14 22 2 3 SW13 11579 W17 171824 E 06/18-13 70 20 4 73 16 W15 24 2 3 SW18 11883 W20 206708 E 06/18-14 70 20 4 74 15 W15 24 2 3 SW26 12187 W23 241593 E 06/18-15 70 20 4 74 16 W14 22 2 3 SW33 12491 SW25 276477 E 06/18-16 70 20 4 74 14 W10 16 2 3 SW31 12281 W24 262648 E 06/18-17 70 20 4 74 13 SW 6 6 2 3 W26 12071 W24 248819 E 06/18-18 70 20 4 73 13 S 2 2 2 3 W22 11861 W23 234990 E 06/18-19 70 20 4 71 14 CALM 1 2 3 W21 9648 W22 186291 E 06/18-20 70 20 4 68 16 CALM 0 2 3 W21 7436 W21 137593 V 06/18-21 70 20 4 64 21 CALM 1 2 3 W21 5223 W20 88894 G 06/18-22 70 20 4 62 25 SW 2 2 2 3 W18 4141 W17 65807 G 06/18-23 70 20 4 59 31 SW 5 5 2 3 SW18 3059 W14 42719 F 06/19-00 61 0 0 58 37 SW 6 6 2 1 SW18 1977 SW12 19632 P 06/19-01 61 0 0 56 41 SW 7 7 2 1 SW24 1487 SW10 14437 P 06/19-02 61 0 0 54 46 SW 7 7 2 1 SW30 997 SW10 9243 P 06/19-03 61 0 0 53 49 SW 7 7 2 1 SW35 506 SW 9 4048 P 06/19-04 61 0 0 52 53 SW 7 7 2 1 SW37 479 SW10 4225 P 06/19-05 61 0 0 51 55 SW 8 13 2 1 SW36 452 SW12 4403 P 06/19-06 61 0 0 51 55 SW 8 13 2 1 SW35 425 SW13 4581 P 06/19-07 61 0 0 54 47 SW 8 13 2 1 SW35 2408 SW15 38406 P 06/19-08 61 0 0 61 37 SW 8 13 2 1 SW33 4390 SW17 72232 G 06/19-09 61 0 0 65 31 SW 8 13 2 1 SW32 6373 SW20 106057 V 06/19-10 61 0 0 68 27 SW 8 13 2 1 SW31 7965 SW21 143854 V 06/19-11 61 0 0 72 23 SW 8 13 2 1 SW31 9557 SW22 181651 E 06/19-12 74 20 4 73 22 SW 8 13 2 4 SW32 11149 SW23 219447 E 06/19-13 74 20 4 74 22 SW 8 13 2 4 SW35 11557 SW24 246927 E 06/19-14 74 20 4 76 22 SW 8 13 2 4 SW36 11965 SW26 274406 E 06/19-15 74 20 4 75 23 W 8 13 2 4 SW37 12373 SW28 301886 E 06/19-16 74 20 4 76 24 W 8 13 2 4 SW36 11889 SW26 274335 E 06/19-17 74 20 4 76 25 W 8 14 2 4 SW33 11406 SW25 246785 E 06/19-18 74 20 4 74 28 NW 8 13 2 4 SW30 10922 SW23 219234 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110616.PINEC.01/BOU