FNUS72 KILM 161307 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR AMSTEP...NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 907 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 UPDATE: A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WATERSPOUTS OFF THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST. A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WHICH INCLUDES THE WATERS OFF OF EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY WATERS TIL 10 AM. SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY WILL OVERSPREAD NEW HANOVER COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS OFF THE NEW HANOVER COUNTY COAST. AT MASONBORO INET NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH TODAY... HIGH TIDE 3.6 FEET AT 835 AM LOW TIDE -0.5 FEET AT 232 PM SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 3 FEET BEYOND 15 NM. S WINDS 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER RISK... AT THIS TIME SEVERE RISK IS LOW ALTHOUGH SPC HAS US IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING CONVECTION...JUST TO OUR WEST AT THIS TIME...MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0708 EDT ON JUNE 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIFTING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 2900 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 14 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............77 74 78 80 80 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 79 80 79 78 RH..................71 60 61 64 67 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 7 S 9 S 10 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 20 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............78 71 61 60 71 61 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................77 76 75 74 74 74 RH..................70 76 81 83 84 86 20 FT WIND..........S 9 S 8 S 7 S 7 SW 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 10 $$ FORECASTER...DIGIORGI REQUESTED BY...STEPHEN KEEBLER TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20110616.AMSTE.01/ILM