FNUS72 KJAX 161559 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRARRIE...IMET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1159 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1143 EDT ON JUNE 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MESO-ETA/MAN12 THE PREFERRED MODEL THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA BREEZE...EXPECT ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IT SHOULD MAKE SLOW INITIAL PROGRESS. ISOLATED SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 1/301 THROUGH 17:00 AND SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND. A GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP AND RACE INLAND ENHANCED BY THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT ATLANTIC-GULF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM DOUGLAS GA-WAYCROSS GA-FARGO GA- MACCLENNY FL-STARKE FL-PALATKA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THAT COLLISION BETWEEN 16:00-21:00 EDT. TEMPERATURES...DEFINITELY RUNNING BEHIND YESTERDAYS TEMPERATURE TREND AND WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINS DO NOT EXPECT TO GET UP INTO THE CENTURY MARK. HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON HIGH TEMPS GOING FOR A 94-98 DEGREE RANGE AND AM EVEN DUBIOUS THAT WE WILL MAKE THE UPPER END THERE. BEST CHANCE OF UPPER 90S WILL BE FROM THE SWEAT FARM ROAD FIRE AREA SOUTHWESTWARD. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST 98F HIGH TEMP IS LOW AT THIS POINT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RH VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE BUT ONLY BRIEFLY BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK... MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 98. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5400 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....67. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............95 98 97 95 RH..............49 38 36 44 20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....4700 9000 9000 5400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 14 SW 14 SW 12 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 30 LAL.............2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....3. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 50 50 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............92 87 81 78 75 73 RH..............44 58 73 83 94 100 20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 6 S 3 S 3 SW 3 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....5400 1700 1700 1000 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 12 SW 9 SW 9 S 7 S 7 S 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............3 3 3 3 2 2 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4600 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....73. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........50 34 34 34 44 44 WEATHER COV.....S CHC AREAS S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM FOG NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 75 88 96 100 98 RH..............100 94 59 44 38 40 20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 3 SW 5 S 7 S 8 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1900 1900 4700 7500 7500 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7 W 8 W 8 W 8 W 9 W 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 20 20 LAL.............2 1 1 1 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...HEATH HOCKENBERRY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110616.HONEY.01/JAX