FNUS72 KMHX 161026 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 626 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0619 EDT ON JUNE 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-5900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH LATE...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 0 MPH. LVORI...............8. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............70 78 78 80 82 84 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................61 70 74 78 81 82 RH..................84 73 66 60 56 56 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 3 S 5 S 6 S 8 S 10 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 15 15 20 LVORI...............8 3 3 2 1 2 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 2600-3700 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 29 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECREASING TO AROUND 8 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............85 85 84 82 81 75 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................82 81 80 78 77 75 RH..................59 64 67 72 79 82 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 14 S 14 S 14 S 14 S 12 S 12 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 20 20 20 20 LVORI...............2 1 3 3 3 4 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-5900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING WEST 3 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 0 MPH LATE. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............68 62 59 55 56 59 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 76 78 81 83 83 RH..................85 84 73 63 59 61 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 11 SW 9 SW 9 SW 10 SW 11 SW 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 20 20 20 LVORI...............4 4 3 2 1 2 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...GOODALL REQUESTED BY...DAVID GREATHOUSE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110616.PAINS.01/MHX