FNUS72 KMHX 161926
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
326 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1520 EDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL PIVOT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
ATLANTIC BACK OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1100-1800 FT
                    AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 23 MPH.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............85     85     84     82     81     75
WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................78     76     74     73     72     71
RH..................65     75     80     86     93     96
20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 12   S 12   S 12   S 12   S 11   S 11
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     20     20     20     20     15
LVORI...............1      3      3      4      5      5
HAINES INDEX........3      3      3      3      3      3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5800-7200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............68     62     58     54     55     59
WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP................70     74     80     85     87     86
RH..................98     90     69     56     51     55
20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 10  SW 9   SW 8   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15     15     10     15
LVORI...............5      5      3      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........3      3      3      3      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...COLLINS
REQUESTED BY...ERIC WELKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110616.PAINS.02/MHX