FNUS75 KRIW 161442
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR BILLY CREEK...WY-HPD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
842 AM MDT THU JUN 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE STATE TODAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...
REACHING THE BURN AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE EXTREMELY
GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT
AND A RELATIVELY COOL DAY TOMORROW WITH MODERATE AFTERNOON RHS.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-47 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND NORTHEAST AFTER 1600.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 25000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (29300-46100 KNOT-FT) BECOMING GOOD
                    TO VERY GOOD (95000-125000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 40 MPH AFTER 0300.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.82 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......25000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45000-55000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS NEAR 60. WEST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH
AFTER 1500.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...BOB BUHR
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110616.BILLY.01/RIW