FNUS73 KDLH 171027 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 527 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0506 CDT ON JUNE 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 0900...BECOMING GUSTY AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOW CLOUD AND BRIEF FOG REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER MINNESOTA TONIGHT...THE BURN AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE RAIN DOES NOT MAKE IT TO THE BURN AREA. HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO ONLY 20-30 PERCENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANY RAINFALL BEING VERY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE BURN AREA MAY AGAIN MISS OUT ON MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRETHS. A WELL ORGANIZED DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS MINNESOTA AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STORM TRACK MAY CHANGE...THE BURN AREA COULD POTENTIALLY RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM MID-WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF FOG THROUGH 1000. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4750 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (27000) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (83100) IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............48 59 65 70 73 72 RH..............98 78 68 59 55 57 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE E SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..0 3 5 8 10 11 20 FT WIND GUST. 7 15 18 17 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1450 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (21300). TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............70 64 59 56 55 54 RH..............59 67 72 74 77 83 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 8 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 14 8 8 8 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING. THEN A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1750 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (45400). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............56 59 62 64 65 65 RH..............80 72 65 60 60 63 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 9 11 12 12 10 20 FT WIND GUST.12 15 18 20 20 16 $$ FORECASTER...AMANDA REQUESTED BY...MARK HALE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110617.HORSE.01/DLH