FNUS73 KDLH 172257 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE ISLAND...SNF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 557 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1734 CDT ON JUNE 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... EAST WINDS FOR THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD ARE BEING PRODUCED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY BUILDING SOUTH TOWARD AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD LAKE IS ENHANCING THESE WINDS...TO THE EAST OF THIS WILD FIRE. HOWEVER...EAST WINDS AT 20 FEET COULD GUST TO 20 MPH BEFORE AND AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING OFF TO EAST LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE DRY HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF AND TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR NOT ONLY ON SATURDAY BUT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. SO...EAST WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 10 MPH OR SO...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH POSSIBLE AFTER MID MORNING SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN OF WINDS DROPPING OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER MID MORNING WILL CONTINUE. VERY DRY SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BURN AREA...IN CANADA. UNFORTUNATELY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. GENEROUS AND SOAKING RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH...WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THE PATTERN WILL CAUSE RAIN AND SHOWERS TO GREATLY DIMINISH AND BECOME SPOTTY AT BEST...WITH VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MEASUREABLE RAIN...SEEM GENEROUS...BUT THE CHANCES OF A SOAKING RAIN ARE MUCH LESS FOR THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD. PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN FALL OFF QUITE A BIT AS ONE GETS JUST EAST OF YOU...BETWEEN GRAND MARIAS AND GRAND PORTAGE FOR EXAMPLE. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH DECREASING TO 4 TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1150 FT AGL IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (77500) DECREASING TO POOR (6900) IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM TEMP............74 72 66 61 58 57 56 RH..............50 53 63 72 77 77 80 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 6 5 4 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 8 6 5 5 6 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63. MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1450 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (29200). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............58 58 60 60 61 61 RH..............75 77 75 75 70 67 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 8 8 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 12 14 14 12 $$ FORECASTER...PETER REQUESTED BY...JT GRAHAM TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110617.HORSE.02/DLH