FNUS72 KJAX 171917 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR SWEAT FARM ROAD...GEMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 317 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1459 EDT ON JUNE 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPPER AIR SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...BUT MAY BE GUST IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A RECENT THUNDERSTORM PASSING VALDOSTA HAD A 41 MPH WITH GUST. WITH THE LOSS OF LIFT THE SMOKE PLUME WILL DESCEND TO THE GROUND AND WE WILL HAVE FOG FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP AFTER SUNSET AND TO BE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 A.M. EDT. SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OVER THE FIRE AREA AND TRANSPORT WINDS TAKING THE SMOKE PLUME TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE FROM REACHING THE FIRE AREA BUT WIND SHIFTS MAY OCCUR INLAND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE SMOKE PLUME TO BEGIN TO LIFT OFF THE GROUND BETWEEN 09-11 A.M. EDT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT BUT WILL BE LOWER ALONG AND NEAR THE FIRE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATES WITH BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 102 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. PATCHY SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 71. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE NIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....3. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........70 70 70 70 25 25 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE PATCHY PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM SMOKE SMOKE TEMP............90 84 79 77 74 73 RH..............51 61 75 84 92 97 20 FT WIND......NW 3 W 2 S 5 S 6 S 5 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....6200 1600 1600 1000 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 30 30 30 10 10 LAL.............3 3 3 3 1 1 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 95. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6100 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....53. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........25 25 25 25 70 70 WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 75 86 93 95 94 RH..............100 90 63 49 41 42 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 5 W 7 W 8 W 9 W 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1800 1800 4000 6100 6100 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 W 12 W 12 W 13 W 12 W 12 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 30 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...DIANE ADAMS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110617.SWEAT.03/JAX