FNUS72 KJAX 181112 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR SWEAT FARM ROAD...GEMA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 712 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1459 EDT ON JUNE 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS IS FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 90S EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103 TO 106 EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE DURATION OF HEAT WILL BE EXTENDED IN DURATION ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. RAINFALL OUTLOOK...THOUGH MONDAY JUNE 17TH RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ONLY INDICATE ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES OF GENERAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE FIRE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT AT THIS POINT NO LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORESEEN WHICH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 96. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-6000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....45. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT (AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........71 66 66 68 70 70 WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS AREAS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TSTM TSTM TSTM TEMP............67 71 85 93 96 95 RH..............100 100 68 51 43 43 20 FT WIND......W 2 W 2 W 3 W 5 W 6 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1800 1800 4000 6000 6000 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 W 9 W 9 W 9 W 9 W 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 30 30 40 40 LAL.............1 1 1 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 73. MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 9 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....6. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT (EVENING THUNDERSTORMS). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........64 58 58 54 50 50 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE....TSTM SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP............91 85 80 78 76 74 RH..............49 60 73 81 87 92 20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....5000 1700 1700 1000 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 CHC OF PCPN (%).40 10 10 10 0 0 LAL.............3 1 1 1 1 1 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 97. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 14 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....62. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...SANDRIK REQUESTED BY...DIANE ADAMS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110617.SWEAT.03/JAX