FNUS73 KDLH 182343 FWSDLH SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSESHOE ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 643 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1812 CDT ON JUNE 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND LAKE SUPERIOR IS RIDGING STRONGLY DOWN THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD DULUTH. IN SPITE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NEARBY...CHILLY AND VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS AT AND BELOW 40 DEGREES HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN THE ENTIRE NORTH SHORE AND ADJACENT ARROWHEAD ALMOST ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO DULUTH. THIS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING PROTECTED BY A RIDGE ALOFT SO THE DRY INTRUSION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED. IN SPITE OF VERY GENEROUS RAIN ACROSS THE RAINY RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ARROWHEAD...THE EXCESSIVELY DRY AIR HAS ABSORBED AND WILL CONTINUE TO ABSORB MOST OR ALL PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN ONLY TRIVIAL MEASURABLE AMOUNTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF ELY...WITH MUCH GREATER AMOUNTS EXPECTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND JUST WEST OF THE WILD FIRE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE IMPLIES MORE GENEROUS RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOCALLY BEGINNING ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND ONCE IT RISES...IT WILL PROBABLY FALL BACK SLOWLY. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN STUBBORNLY ENTRENCHED AND WILL CONTINUE TO ABSORB RAIN FALLING INTO IT FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS LATER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT. THE DENSITY OF DRY AIR FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE THUNDER BAY AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BRISK EAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST...TO YOUR EAST WITH WINDS LIGHT EAST OVER ELY. SO...WE EXPECT WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 MPH TO SUBSIDE ABOUT SUNSET AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER DARK THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN SPITE OF OUR EXPECTATION OF WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE EAST REMAINING 15 MPH OR LESS LATE SUNDAY...WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH WORKING THEIR WAY INLAND FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE ONCE OR TWICE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER OUT IN TIME...UNFORTUNATELY THE STRONG LAKE-SHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD MONDAY. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1150 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13300). TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM TEMP............61 57 55 53 51 50 50 RH..............70 72 72 80 89 93 96 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 8 7 6 6 6 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59. MIN HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1150 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 20 TO 25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (26900). TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM TEMP............50 51 54 57 57 57 RH..............96 96 90 86 86 86 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 6 6 7 20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 12 12 13 $$ FORECASTER...PETER REQUESTED BY...MARK HALE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110618.HORSE.02/DLH