FNUS72 KJAX 181130
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA- FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0717 EDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS
SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS IS FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH UPPER 90S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103 TO 106 EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE DURATION OF HEAT WILL
BE EXTENDED IN DURATION ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK...THOUGH MONDAY JUNE 17TH RAINFALL OUTLOOKS ONLY
INDICATE ONE HALF TO TWO INCHES OF GENERAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE
FIRE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BUT AT THIS POINT NO LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS
ARE FORESEEN WHICH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH DURING
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5700-6500 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....48.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........67     60     67     73     73     72
WEATHER COV.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............74     86     93     97     96     94
RH..............100    80     60     49     47     54
20 FT WIND......W 4    W 4    W 6    W 8    SW 8   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1800   4400   6500   6500   5700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9    W 9    W 10   W 10   W 10   W 9
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      2      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT (EVENING THUNDERSTORMS).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........72     70     70     61     51     51
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............91     85     80     77     75     73
RH..............54     67     80     86     91     94
20 FT WIND......SW 8   SW 8   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....5700   1700   1700   1000   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9    SW 8   SW 8   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     10     10     10     0      0
LAL.............3      1      1      1      1      1

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 98.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6800 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....62.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110618.IMPAS.01/JAX