FNUS72 KMFL 182108
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR MONKEY FARM...FHP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
508 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1640 EDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHED THE WILDFIRE LOCATION FROM THE EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 230 PM AND MOVED WESTWARD PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS. AT 5 PM
MOST OF THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE NAPLES AREA. SINCE THE WILDFIRE LOCATION
WAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF NEW THUNDERSTORMS. SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE ACTIVITY FADES AWAY DUE TO LACK OF
SOLAR HEATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM THIS POINT ON THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT FIRST BUT THE
SW FLOW WILL TEND TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.


TIME (EDT)      4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM
SKY (%).........M      70     70     60     60     60
WEATHER COV.....M      LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....M      RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........M      LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............93     89     83     78     75     73
RH..............57     63     77     85     93     97
20 FT WIND......M      E 5    SW 4   SW 4   SW 2   S 0
20 FT WIND GUST.M      10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..M      E 5    SW 4   SW 4   SW 2   S 0
EYE LEVEL WIND..M      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....M      4500   2400   2400   300    200
MIXNG WIND......M      E 9    SW 7   SW 7   SW 2   S 0
DISPERSION IDX..M      26     5      5      1      0
LVORI...........2      10     10     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).M      60     40     40     40     40
LAL.............M      4      3      3      3      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 0 TO 7
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....26 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............10.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....1 INCREASING TO 24.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...ESTUPINAN
REQUESTED BY...LT  SAPP
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110618.MONKE.01/MFL