FNUS72 KMFL 191129
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNS LEROY FIRES...SEMINOLE TRIBE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0723 EDT ON JUNE 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A TRANQUIL MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS LOCATION. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AFTER 3 PM. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 46 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 34.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........50     50     50     60     60     60
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............77     84     91     95     95     92
RH..............100    77     61     49     46     54
20 FT WIND......N 1    N 1    NE 3   E 5    E 5    SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.              5      10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..N 1    N 1    NE 3   E 5    E 5    SE 5
EYE LEVEL WIND..              5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1800   3400   5000   5000   4500
MIXNG WIND......NW 6   NW 5   NW 3   W 3    W 3    W 5
DISPERSION IDX..12     12     16     16     11     34
LVORI...........4      4      4      4      4      8
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50     50     50     50     50
LAL.............1      1      2      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 71.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 97 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 6 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....34 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............8.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 97.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 43 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 50.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...GREGORIA
REQUESTED BY...KEITH YEATES
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110619.JOHNS.01/MFL