FNUS72 KMHX 192034 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 434 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1542 EDT ON JUNE 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND SLOWLY RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............57 67 69 72 74 69 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................84 82 79 77 76 74 RH..................63 69 74 80 86 94 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 7 NE 6 NE 5 E 5 SE 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 LVORI...............2 3 3 4 5 6 HAINES INDEX........4 3 4 4 4 4 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800-5800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH...BECOMING WEST 17 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 28 TO 31 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............64 60 59 58 58 57 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................73 76 80 84 86 85 RH..................100 93 72 58 56 61 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 8 W 10 W 12 W 14 NW 14 NW 14 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 20 25 25 LVORI...............5 5 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 4 3 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1500-2300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 28 TO 33 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 13 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............57 57 57 57 57 57 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................83 77 71 71 69 68 RH..................61 64 81 84 93 96 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NW 14 N 14 N 11 N 8 N 6 N 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 20 15 15 10 LVORI...............1 1 4 3 5 6 HAINES INDEX........3 2 3 3 3 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-4800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............57 57 55 52 50 45 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................68 75 82 87 88 85 RH..................96 78 62 52 52 57 20 FT WIND (MPH)....N 5 N 5 NE 5 E 5 SE 5 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 LVORI...............6 4 3 2 2 3 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...COLLINS REQUESTED BY...ERIC WELKER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110619.PAINS.02/MHX