FNUS72 KJAX 210956
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0540 EDT ON JUNE 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH ERC AND LONG DURATIONS
OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES OF 100 DEGREES EXPECTED TODAY.
DURATIONS OF 4 TO 5 HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH ERC TO PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WESTERLY WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE
                    THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....37.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........23     26     26     21     31     31
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............73     77     89     97     100    98
RH..............100    90     59     42     33     33
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 3    W 5    W 5    W 5    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10                   10
MIX HGT (FT)....1100   1900   1900   4800   7800   7800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7    W 8    W 8    W 6    W 5    W 5
DISPERSION INDX.3      4      4      32     37     37
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
                    PATCHY SMOKE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1700 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........33     32     32     31     33     33
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............94     87     82     79     76     74
RH..............39     54     69     80     88     94
20 FT WIND......SW 7   SW 7   SW 6   SW 3   SW 2   SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....7800   1700   1700   1000   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 7   S 8    S 8    S 7    S 5    S 5
LVORI...........7      7      7      7      7      7
LAL.............2      2      2      2      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7700-8000 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....46.

$$
FORECASTER...SHULER
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS CHURCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110621.IMPAS.01/JAX