FNUS72 KILM 231027 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNIPER ROAD FIRE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 627 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0559 EDT ON JUNE 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AT THE FIRE SITE...MODERATE SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE PASSAGE SOMETIME BETWEEN 200 PM AND 400 PM. GUSTS FROM THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...DISCOUNTING THE LOCAL MIXING FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AIDED BY THE FIRE ITSELF...COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 28 MPH. EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL GIVE WAY TO HAZY SUNSHINE. COMBINING THE EFFECTS OF HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL REACH AS HIGH 103 DEGREES ACROSS THE HOLLY SHELTER GAME-LAND AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING S TO SW LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND FRIDAY...COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS FIRE BEHAVIOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...STRONGEST IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE TYPE I-F THROUGH MID MORNING. MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 1400 FEET AGL. DIRECTION SOUTHWEST WITH AN AVERAGE OF SPEED OF 32 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96. HEAT INDEX MAXIMUM 103. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE...AND SEA BREEZE BETWEEN 200 PM AND 400 PM. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3400-4700 FT AGL BY MIDDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............56 55 57 60 64 63 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................78 80 84 90 94 94 RH..................91 88 73 59 51 52 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 6 W 6 W 7 SW 8 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 W 5 W 5 SW 6 SW 6 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 LVORI INDEX.........5 4 3 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............65 74 78 79 80 83 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................88 85 83 80 79 79 RH..................62 67 73 81 83 83 20 FT WIND..........SW 8 S 8 S 7 S 6 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 10 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 6 S 6 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 15 15 10 15 LVORI INDEX.........1 2 3 4 4 4 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............81 70 68 62 58 59 WEATHER COV.........AREAS CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................79 78 79 85 89 90 RH..................81 82 75 61 53 54 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 5 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...GSRY M CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110623.JUNIP.01/ILM