FNUS72 KJAX 232053
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA-FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1645 EDT ON JUNE 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
HIGH CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST PREVAILING FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENING WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHER AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LVORI...............8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........71     59     59     59     62     62
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............87     84     79     77     75     73
RH..............51     71     83     90     94     98
20 FT WIND......W 10   W 8    SW 2   SW 0   SW 1   SW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     10     5             5
MIX HGT (FT)....5400   4200   4200   2200   300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15   W 14   W 14   W 8    SW 3   SW 3
LVORI...........8      8      8      8      8      8
DISPERSION INDX.47     19     6      4      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     30     30     30     20     20
LAL.............3      3      3      3      2      2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY SMOKE.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-4000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-4500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....31.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........62     68     68     68     74     74
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............72     75     85     91     94     93
RH..............100    97     72     58     52     51
20 FT WIND......SW 1   W 2    SW 5   W 6    W 6    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5             10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....2100   4000   4000   4200   4500   4500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3   SW 7   SW 7   W 8    W 9    W 9
LVORI...........M      M      M      M      M      M
DISPERSION INDX.2      33     27     31     27     27
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     30     30     50     50
LAL.............2      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110623.IMPAS.03/JAX