FNUS74 KLCH 231245 FWSLCH SPOT FORECAST FOR TOURBE FIRE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 745 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING... THEN ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONE HALF TO POSSIBLY ONE INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH...HOWEVER WILL BECOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA...LIMITING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND CREATING HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-4700 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....GOOD. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM SKY (%).........79 78 77 77 76 75 72 70 67 65 62 60 WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH WEATHER TYPE....SHW SHW SHW SHW SHW SHW TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 78 80 84 87 88 88 88 88 88 87 86 RH..............90 88 85 75 63 61 61 61 61 59 61 63 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 EYE LVL WND GST.12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 MIX HGT (KM)....0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-4000 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 12 TO 13 MPH. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSION....GOOD. $$ FORECASTER...RUA REQUESTED BY...JON KING TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110623.TOURB.01/LCH