FNUS72 KILM 241314 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 914 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0901 EDT ON JUNE 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT...CROSSING THE FIRE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS MONDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE TYPE 1-F THROUGH 10 AM. LOW LEVEL WIND MAX NEAR 1700 FEET AGL...WSW 33 MPH. FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOW- LEVEL JET WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 7700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 21 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............74 65 55 53 53 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................79 84 89 91 91 RH..................79 63 51 44 43 20 FT WIND..........SW 6 SW 8 SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 15 15 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS DECREASING TO 4 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-1100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS DECREASING TO 4 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............55 57 57 55 50 48 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................90 85 80 76 73 71 RH..................45 55 70 81 85 88 20 FT WIND..........SW 9 SW 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 5 W 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 10 10 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 7 SW 5 S 5 SW 4 SW 4 W 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 15 10 10 5 ADI.................61 21 14 12 9 8 LVORI...............1 2 3 4 5 5 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 13 MPH. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 4 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............40 20 19 18 17 25 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................71 74 82 88 90 91 RH..................87 83 59 44 39 37 20 FT WIND..........W 3 NW 3 NW 3 NW 4 W 5 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......W 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 3 W 4 W 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 ADI.................7 5 36 49 56 63 LVORI...............6 5 1 1 1 1 $$ FORECASTER...STEVE REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110624.SIMMO.01/ILM