FNUS72 KILM 251213 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNIPER ROAD FIRE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 813 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0734 EDT ON JUNE 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A WEAK WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SEA BREEZE ON SUNDAY TURNS THE WINDS ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH THE UPPER PATTERN BRINGING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS QUESTIONABLE THROUGH 0930 AM. MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 2000 FEET. DIRECTION WEST AT A SPEED OF 25 MPH. MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A MORE FAVORABLE PROFILE BY LATE MORNING. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900-6700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............14 56 47 52 52 49 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................78 82 87 91 93 92 RH..................88 70 55 45 42 45 20 FT WIND..........SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 SW 10 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 8 SW 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 15 15 15 15 ADI.................25 40 42 51 55 48 LVORI...............3 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-2000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING WEST AND DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............48 45 46 48 49 43 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................89 83 79 76 75 74 RH..................50 67 79 85 86 86 20 FT WIND..........SW 8 S 8 SW 7 SW 6 W 3 W 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 10 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 6 S 6 SW 5 SW 4 W 2 W 1 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 15 10 5 ADI.................20 20 18 11 3 2 LVORI...............2 3 3 4 6 6 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-6100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............41 45 44 43 42 50 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................74 77 85 90 90 90 RH..................87 84 63 52 50 51 20 FT WIND..........W 2 W 2 S 2 S 2 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......W 1 W 2 S 1 S 2 S 3 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST..... 5 5 5 10 ADI.................3 11 17 33 41 54 LVORI...............6 4 2 1 1 1 $$ FORECASTER...PFAFF REQUESTED BY...GARY CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110625.JUNIP.01/ILM