FNUS72 KMFL 250940
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR OIL PAD COMPLEX...BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
540 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 EDT ON JUNE 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE
IN THIS AREA IS BETWEEN 2 AND 7 PM. WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING
THEN BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 MPH. THE GULF SEA
BREEZE IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH THIS LOCATION BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH AND PREVAILING OUT OF
THE SOUTH. ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WINDS COULD CHANGE ABRUPTLY
DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. EVEN STORMS NOT OVER THE FIRE SITE COULD
SEND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...SO SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND
DIRECTION ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 54 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
LAL.................1 EARLY MORNING INCREASING TO 4 AFTER NOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....1 INCREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE MORNING
                    DECREASING TO 18 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........52     41     41     41     76     76
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS
TEMP............74     75     84     89     92     85
RH..............97     97     70     59     54     65
20 FT WIND......S 2    S 3    S 3    S 4    S 4    S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     10     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 2    S 3    S 3    S 4    S 4    S 4
EYE LEVEL WIND..5      5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....200    2400   2400   4500   4500   4500
MIXNG WIND......S 1    S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7    S 7
DISPERSION IDX..1      17     17     34     19     19
LVORI...........4      4      4      4      4      4
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     30     50     60     60
LAL.............1      1      2      2      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....16 DECREASING TO 2 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LVORI...............9.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 9 AM...THEN 4.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...GREGORIA
REQUESTED BY...JILL WAISLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110625.OILPA.01/MFL