FNUS72 KMHX 251011 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 611 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0550 EDT ON JUNE 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WEST INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............56 54 43 28 17 20 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................79 82 85 88 90 90 RH..................88 75 62 53 50 49 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 12 SW 11 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 20 17 17 17 15 LVORI...............4 3 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 4 4 5 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............24 27 27 27 27 31 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................87 83 80 78 76 75 RH..................53 64 70 76 81 82 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 9 SW 10 SW 9 SW 8 SW 7 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 15 13 10 LVORI...............1 3 3 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............34 37 34 31 28 36 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................74 78 81 85 86 85 RH..................86 77 68 59 56 59 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 4 NW 5 NW 4 NE 3 E 3 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............5 3 3 1 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 4 3 3 4 3 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110625.PAINS.01/MHX