FNUS72 KILM 261038 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNIPER ROAD FIRE...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 638 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0617 EDT ON JUNE 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AT THE JUNIPER ROAD FIRE SITE...EXPECT VERY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SE IN THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON...AS THE SEA FRONT MOVES THROUGH PASSING WEST OF THE FIRE SITE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PYRO-INDUCED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE FIRE SITE DUE TO STRONG ASH-LADEN UPDRAFTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 300 PM AND 600 PM. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. VERY HIGH LVORI INDEX VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AT THE FIRE SITE DUE TO LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH MAXIMUM RH VALUES. A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN THE DAYS AHEAD...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT WIND DIRECTION BY MID WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PATCHY FOG EARLY. THEN MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 9 TO 10 MPH LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............23 19 24 29 37 30 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................77 78 85 89 91 91 RH..................93 90 59 43 40 43 20 FT WIND..........SW 2 NW 2 N 3 N 3 NE 2 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SW 2 NW 2 N 2 N 2 NE 2 SE 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............7 6 3 2 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 14 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............32 49 47 46 43 46 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................89 82 77 75 75 75 RH..................52 70 88 100 100 100 20 FT WIND..........SE 5 S 6 S 5 S 3 SE 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 15 10 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......SE 4 S 5 S 4 S 2 SE 2 S 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 15 10 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 1 4 6 8 9 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500-6900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............49 56 57 58 59 62 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 77 83 87 88 88 RH..................100 94 70 61 58 60 20 FT WIND..........S 3 SW 4 SW 2 S 3 S 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 2 SW 3 SW 2 S 2 S 4 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 5 10 10 LVORI...............9 8 3 2 2 1 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...GARY CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110626.JUNIP.01/ILM