FNUS72 KILM 271405 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1005 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0944 EDT ON JUNE 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HOT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE INCIDENT. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL AT NOON...MAX 6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............62 55 51 52 54 55 62 76 83 WEATHER COV......... ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE........ TSM RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP................78 85 89 92 93 94 95 95 94 RH..................85 69 58 51 46 45 45 46 47 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......5 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 EYE LVL WND DIR.....SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.....4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER SUNSET. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 4 TO 5 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............84 86 87 89 91 87 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE TEMP................93 84 78 76 75 74 RH..................51 71 87 94 93 94 20 FT WIND..........S 6 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 4 S 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 5 S 4 S 4 S 4 S 3 S 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 5 5 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 16 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 6 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............84 61 48 43 42 62 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................74 76 82 88 91 91 RH..................94 91 74 59 52 52 20 FT WIND..........S 4 S 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 3 S 4 SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 10 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...WEISS/STEVE REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110627.SIMMO.01/ILM