FNUS72 KJAX 272100 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA-FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 500 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1645 EDT ON JUNE 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION...AS WELL AS GUSTY CONDITIONS. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEAK TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1400 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 0 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....2. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. LVORI...............10. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........74 77 77 72 66 66 WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............90 83 78 75 73 71 RH..............56 68 80 87 94 100 20 FT WIND......SW 7 S 6 SW 5 SW 2 SW 1 SW 0 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3700 2600 2600 1400 200 200 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 2 N 0 N 0 SW 1 SW 3 SW 3 LVORI...........10 10 10 10 10 10 DISPERSION INDX.7 0 0 1 2 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 40 40 40 0 0 LAL.............4 3 3 3 1 1 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....39. CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........60 67 67 59 62 62 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............70 73 84 90 93 92 RH..............100 97 68 54 49 51 20 FT WIND......SW 0 SW 1 SW 5 S 7 S 9 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....900 1600 1600 3300 5000 5000 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 SW 9 SW 9 DISPERSION INDX.3 15 12 20 38 38 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 30 30 30 60 60 LAL.............1 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...STRUBLE REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110627.IMPAS.02/JAX