FNUS72 KILM 281348 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 948 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON JUNE 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...FROM THE NORTH...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...REESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS UNFAVORABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEABREEZE...TYPE 1-F...MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 1000 FT AGL...DIRECTION S...SPEED 25 MPH. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE WEST OF THE SEABREEZE. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....94. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM SKY (%).............28 34 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE TEMP................76 78 RH..................88 86 20 FT WIND..........SW 3 SW 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 LVORI...............6 5 ADI.................9 8 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-6400 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1200-2900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).............33 26 39 47 58 72 WEATHER COV......... SCTTRD CHANCE LIKELY CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................80 86 91 92 92 87 RH..................80 66 55 51 53 62 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 15 15 15 LVORI...............4 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.................8 55 52 65 65 40 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74. MAX HUMIDITY........94 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH. TIME (EDT) 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM SKY (%).............80 88 93 95 95 94 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................82 78 76 75 74 75 RH..................74 83 87 90 93 94 20 FT WIND..........S 7 SW 6 SW 4 SW 2 SW 2 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............3 4 5 5 6 6 ADI.................18 14 11 7 7 6 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH UNTIL EARLY EVENING. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM SKY (%).............75 69 64 60 51 42 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................77 82 85 86 85 82 RH..................88 75 64 59 60 68 20 FT WIND..........W 2 N 2 N 3 NE 3 E 3 E 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............5 3 2 2 2 3 ADI.................4 50 28 20 24 31 $$ FORECASTER...HAWKINS REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110628.SIMMO.01/ILM