FNUS72 KILM 281905 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 305 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1520 EDT ON JUNE 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEFORE THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...REESTABLISHING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LVORI...............4. ADI.................51...DECREASING TO 6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............58 64 68 69 67 69 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................90 85 81 78 76 75 RH..................56 67 78 85 88 90 20 FT WIND..........S 6 SW 5 N 5 NE 4 E 3 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 3 4 5 5 6 ADI.................51 10 5 3 5 5 REMARKS...CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED BUT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 5 PM. SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 330 AND 430 PM. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89. MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING EAST AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LVORI...............4. ADI.................9...INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 33 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 27 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............69 68 65 62 59 57 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................75 77 82 86 88 87 RH..................90 87 73 62 57 58 20 FT WIND..........SW 2 SW 3 S 3 SE 2 E 2 E 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............6 5 3 2 2 2 ADI.................5 8 12 29 27 27 REMARKS...MIXING HEIGHT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LOWER SO SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE POOR ON WEDNESDAY. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 9 MPH. LVORI...............4. ADI.................36...DECREASING TO 3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............54 51 48 43 39 37 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP................84 79 76 74 72 71 RH..................63 74 81 88 92 93 20 FT WIND..........E 2 SE 2 E 2 E 2 E 2 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............1 3 5 6 7 7 ADI.................36 3 3 2 1 1 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90. MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH. LVORI...............4. ADI.................6...INCREASING TO 37. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............36 35 34 31 30 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................70 74 80 86 89 88 RH..................95 80 63 51 45 47 20 FT WIND..........NE 3 NE 4 NE 4 E 3 E 3 E 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LVORI...............6 4 2 2 1 1 ADI.................3 8 13 20 37 37 $$ FORECASTER...HAWKINS REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110628.SIMMO.02/ILM