FNUS74 KLIX 291218 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR BREAKWATER FIRE...U.S. FWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 718 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........40 40 40 40 40 40 59 59 59 59 59 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 82 85 88 90 91 91 91 90 89 89 RH..............87 74 70 63 60 55 55 53 60 61 61 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N NW W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 EYE LVL WND DIR.N N N N N N N NW W SW SW EYE LVL WND SPD.2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.9 5.9 MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW W W TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 30 40 40 40 40 40 40 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........59 46 46 46 36 36 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE TEMP............87 83 78 75 72 70 RH..............65 74 88 97 100 100 20 FT WIND......SW 4 SW 2 SW 2 W 2 W 2 NW 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 4 SW 2 SW 2 W 2 W 2 NW 2 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....5900 4000 1800 1800 900 900 MIX HGT (M).....1800 1220 550 550 270 270 TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 10 W 10 W 10 W 10 NW 9 TRAN WIND (M/S).W 4 W 4 W 4 W 4 W 4 NW 4 CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 20 20 .THURSDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........36 42 42 42 45 45 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 77 87 91 93 92 RH..............100 90 65 56 52 54 20 FT WIND......NW 2 N 2 N 4 E 4 SE 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 2 N 2 N 4 E 4 SE 5 S 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....M M M M M M MIX HGT (M).....M M M M M M TRANSPORT WIND..NW 9 NW 7 N 5 N 5 N 3 NW 2 TRAN WIND (M/S).NW 4 NW 3 N 2 N 2 N 1 NW 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 .REMARKS... 1...YES...SEA BREEZE GUSTS 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE MOVES PAST YOUR AREA...THE PREDOMINANT WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY. IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ONCE IT IS NORTH OF YOUR AREA...THE OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWER WOULD BE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. AS THE SEA BREEZE TRIES TO GET REESTABLISHED...THE WIND WILL MOVE BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BUT NOT NORMALLY BE AS STRONG. THIS ALL LEADS TO A VARIED WIND DIRECTION AND SOMETIMES SPEED. 2&3...YOU WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING LIGHTNING ON SITE TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE RIGHT ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE AWAY FROM THE AREA THOUGH. 4...SPOT FORECAST INDICATES 53 PERCENT BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT RH LEVELS WILL DROP MUCH BELOW THE MID 50S DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 5...FOG FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD BUT WITH ADDED MOISTURE AT THE SFC...THERE WILL BE SOME TEMPORARY FOG CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. 6...A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND AS USUAL...SEA BREEZE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW. 7...GRADIENT WIND WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. A RATHER MODERATE DRAINAGE WIND SHOULD HELP MOVE ANY SHALLOW SMOKE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. 8...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110629.BREAK.01/LIX