FNUS76 KLOX 290522
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANCHO 23...CNTY LAC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1022 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PDT ON JUNE 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL COOL AND MOISTEN DUE TO INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW. BREEZY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BURN
AREA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN AREA BETWEEN
1600 AND 2000 HOURS. A NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO
THE FIRE SITE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH FOR LATE WEEK BRINGING
AND WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
    CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-82 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-44 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE-LEVEL)....
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 3 MPH AT
    IGNITION TIME INCREASING TO 4 TO 7 MPH WITH
    GUSTS TO 10 MPH BY 1200 HOURS. THEN...
    INCREASING TO 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH
    BY 1600 HOURS.
WIND (20 FT)........
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
    24 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL AT IGNITION TIME LIFTING TO
    5500 FT AGL BY 1400 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 21 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-55 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-69 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE-LEVEL)....
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS
    TO 10 MPH UNTIL 2200 HOURS...THEN SHIFTING TO
    NORTH TO NORTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 13
    MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20
    MPH UNTIL 2000 HOURS...BECOMING NORTH
    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL EARLY FALLING TO DECREASING TO
    1000 FT AGL OR LESS BY 2300 HOURS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2100 HOURS...
    SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
    MPH.



FORECASTER...HALL
REQUESTED BY...LARRY TUCKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110629.RANCH.01/LOX

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