FNUS72 KILM 301021 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NCFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 621 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0602 EDT ON JUNE 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST THIS AFTERNOON... THEN INCREASING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE FOR SIMMONS ROAD FIRE. LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL BREAK BY 10 AM. DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING A MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 40 PERCENT. NE WINDS 5 MPH BECOMING E THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 10 MPH TODAY. WINDS VIRTUALLY CALM AFTER DARK. SUPER-FOG EVENT LIKELY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG/SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500-7300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH. LVORI...............5. ADI.................3...INCREASING TO 45. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............49 22 36 39 34 35 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................69 71 80 86 88 90 RH..................100 97 66 51 43 40 20 FT WIND..........N 1 N 2 NE 5 NE 5 NE 3 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 10 10 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......N 1 N 2 NE 4 NE 4 NE 2 NE 2 EYE LVL WND GST..... 5 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............9 6 3 2 2 2 ADI.................3 2 2 21 27 28 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100-7100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 2 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 0 MPH LATE. LVORI...............6. ADI.................33...DECREASING TO 4. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............33 24 24 24 26 25 WEATHER COV......... AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................88 82 76 71 68 66 RH..................43 55 70 84 95 100 20 FT WIND..........E 2 E 2 E 1 E 0 S 0 S 0 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 2 E 1 E 1 E 0 S 0 S 0 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 LVORI...............1 2 3 5 8 10 ADI.................35 20 8 5 4 1 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6600-7700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 1 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LVORI...............6. ADI.................2...INCREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 69 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 31 LATE. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............25 24 30 37 43 44 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................66 72 80 88 92 92 RH..................100 91 66 48 41 42 20 FT WIND..........S 0 NW 2 W 2 SW 2 S 2 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 0 NW 1 W 1 SW 1 S 1 S 2 EYE LVL WND GST..... 5 LVORI...............10 7 3 1 1 1 ADI.................0 1 3 66 65 34 $$ FORECASTER...DIGIORGI REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110630.SIMMO.01/ILM