FNUS72 KILM 301413 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMONS RD FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1013 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0958 EDT ON JUNE 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AT THE FIRE SITE...A NE SURGE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 12 MPH. NE SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY EASE BY 100 PM...BECOMING NORTH 4 MPH OR LESS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH...INTERACTING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO FRIDAY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...TYPE 1-F...MAXIMUM WIND NEAR 1000 FT AGL...DIRECTION ESE...SPEED 16 MPH. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 13 MPH THROUGH NOON. NE WIND EASING TO 4 TO 7 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY THEN BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 5 MPH IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500-7300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH. LVORI...............5. ADI.................3...INCREASING TO 45. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH GUSTS TO 12 MPH THROUGH NOON. NE WIND EASING TO 3 TO 6 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY THEN BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 4 MPH IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............28 40 35 34 36 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................76 84 87 89 90 RH..................78 57 46 41 40 20 FT WIND..........NE 3 NE 5 NE 4 NE 3 NE 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......NE 2 NE 4 NE 3 NE 2 NE 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............4 2 2 2 1 ADI.................2 20 27 28 45 .TONIGHT... LVORI...............6. ADI.................33...DECREASING TO 4. SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............33 24 23 24 26 25 WEATHER COV......... AREAS AREAS WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE SMOKE SMOKE TEMP................88 82 76 71 68 66 RH..................43 55 70 84 95 100 20 FT WIND..........E 2 E 2 E 1 SE 0 S 0 S 0 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 EYE LEVEL WIND......E 2 E 1 E 1 SE 0 S 0 S 0 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 LVORI...............1 2 3 5 8 10 ADI.................35 20 8 5 4 1 .FRIDAY... LVORI...............6. ADI.................2...INCREASING TO 57 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 68 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 30 LATE. SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............25 24 30 38 44 44 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........SMOKE SMOKE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................66 72 80 88 92 92 RH..................100 92 67 49 41 42 20 FT WIND..........S 0 NW 2 W 2 SW 2 S 2 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 0 NW 1 W 1 SW 1 S 1 S 2 EYE LVL WND GST..... 5 LVORI...............10 7 3 1 1 2 ADI.................0 1 3 67 65 33 $$ FORECASTER...COLBY REQUESTED BY...JOHN COOK TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110630.SIMMO.02/ILM