FNUS74 KLIX 301201 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR BREAKWATER FIRE...U.S. FWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 701 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY AND MOVE OUT OVER THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM ARLENE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE INTO MEXICO THIS MORNING. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........42 42 42 42 42 42 40 40 40 40 40 WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............73 77 82 87 89 91 93 94 94 93 92 RH..............97 85 72 61 56 52 47 46 46 47 51 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE E E SE S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LVL WND DIR.N N N N NE E E SE S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.2 2 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.3 2.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.0 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N NE NE NE NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 TRANS SPD (M/S).2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........40 31 31 31 26 26 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............90 83 76 74 72 70 RH..............54 70 87 93 100 100 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 3 SW 2 S 1 S 1 NW 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5 S 3 SW 2 S 1 S 1 NW 1 EYE LEVEL WIND..10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....6000 4600 2800 2800 1300 900 MIX HGT (M).....1830 1400 850 850 400 270 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 5 W 3 SW 2 SW 2 SW 1 SW 3 TRAN WIND (M/S).NW 2 W 1 SW 1 SW 1 SW 0 SW 1 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .FRIDAY... TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........26 25 25 25 37 37 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............71 77 88 90 92 92 RH..............100 85 61 56 51 52 20 FT WIND......NE 2 E 2 E 3 SE 5 S 6 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 2 E 2 E 3 SE 5 S 6 S 6 EYE LEVEL WIND..5 5 5 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....900 2600 4800 4800 6500 6700 MIX HGT (M).....270 790 1460 1460 1980 2040 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 5 SW 2 SW 2 SW 1 SW 5 TRAN WIND (M/S).SW 1 SW 2 SW 1 SW 1 SW 0 SW 2 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 .REMARKS... 1...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A 180 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN SFC/TRANSPORT WIND DIR TODAY. SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAJOR FACTOR AT THE SFC WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR NW WILL CAUSE WIND DIR TO BE OUT OF THE NE FROM ABOUT 2K FT UP TO 20K FT. THEN THE MARITIME ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT OVER ARLENE WILL CAUSE WINDS OUT OF WEST FROM 30K FT UP. 2...SEA BREEZE GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS CBRZ. 3&4...YOU WILL HAVE A 10% OF GETTING A THUNDERSTORM NEAR SITE. THERE SHOULD BE NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ON SITE. 5...SPOT FORECAST INDICATES 43 PERCENT BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. RH LEVELS FROM YESTERDAYS FCAST WERE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OVER YOUR AREA WHICH WAS FORECASTED TO OCCUR. SINCE THIS DID NOT OCCUR...NATURALLY YOUR TEMPERATURES WERE HIGHER AND DP TEMPS WERE LOWER CAUSING MUCH LOWER RH LEVELS. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT RH LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW WHAT IS FORECASTED FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN HOURS. 6...FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. 7...A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AFTER GOING CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER DARK. 8...GRADIENT WIND WITH ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. A RATHER MODERATE DRAINAGE WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD HELP MOVE ANY SHALLOW SMOKE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110630.BREAK.01/LIX