FNUS75 KBOU 030026 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR STORM PASS SAR...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 620 PM MDT SAT JUL 2 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE ESTES PARK AREA AS OF 1800 HOURS. HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD AGAIN FORM OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 2000 AND 2400 HOURS THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN FROM WYOMING. IT APPEARS THESE STORMS WILL BE WEAK...MAINLY PRODUCING JUST GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LIGHTNING. THE CHANCE OF SEEING THIS STORM ACTIVITY IS LOW. AFTER MIDNIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-35%) UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2000 TO 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-54. MAX HUMIDITY........36-41%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1500...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-78. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 12600-13600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50. MAX HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .INDEPENDENCE DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....76. MIN HUMIDITY........22%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 11000-11600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR STORM PASSSAR. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 07/02-18 38 10 3 69 27 W 7 7 2 1 W25 10318 W15 137510 V 07/02-19 38 10 3 67 29 NW 6 6 2 1 W24 8455 W14 105801 V 07/02-20 38 10 1 64 31 NE 6 6 2 1 W25 6592 W12 74092 G 07/02-21 55 12 1 61 33 SW 5 5 2 2 W26 4729 W10 42383 F 07/02-22 55 12 1 59 34 S 6 6 2 2 W28 3276 W 9 28852 P 07/02-23 55 12 1 57 35 SW 7 7 2 2 W30 1823 W 7 15320 P 07/03-00 23 6 1 56 35 SW10 10 2 1 W32 370 NW 6 1789 P 07/03-01 23 6 1 55 35 SW 9 9 2 1 W33 331 W 6 1705 P 07/03-02 23 6 1 55 35 SW10 10 2 1 NW35 291 W 7 1622 P 07/03-03 5 4 1 55 35 SW12 12 2 1 NW35 251 W 7 1539 P 07/03-04 5 4 1 54 35 SW13 13 2 1 NW36 247 W 7 1484 P 07/03-05 5 4 1 53 36 SW15 24 2 1 NW37 243 W 7 1430 P 07/03-06 8 0 0 54 35 W 6 6 2 1 NW37 239 W 7 1375 P 07/03-07 8 0 0 55 35 W 6 6 2 1 NW37 1519 W 9 18161 P 07/03-08 8 0 0 60 31 W 6 6 2 1 NW38 2798 W12 34947 P 07/03-09 8 0 0 65 28 W 6 6 2 1 NW37 4078 NW15 51733 F 07/03-10 8 0 0 68 23 W 7 7 2 1 NW36 6737 NW16 102109 V 07/03-11 8 0 0 71 20 W 8 14 3 1 NW35 9396 NW17 152485 E 07/03-12 41 10 2 73 18 W 9 15 3 1 NW31 12056 NW20 202861 E 07/03-13 41 10 2 74 17 W 9 14 3 1 NW25 12643 NW17 189731 E 07/03-14 41 10 2 75 16 NW 8 13 3 1 NW18 13230 NW15 176601 E 07/03-15 41 10 2 75 16 NW 7 7 3 1 NW14 13817 NW14 163471 E 07/03-16 41 10 2 76 16 NW 7 7 3 1 NW12 13382 NW13 148381 V 07/03-17 41 10 2 75 17 NW 8 13 3 1 NW12 12946 NW12 133292 V 07/03-18 45 10 2 74 18 N 8 8 3 2 NW12 12510 NW10 118202 V 07/03-19 45 10 2 72 20 NW 6 6 3 2 NW12 8706 NW 8 80081 G 07/03-20 45 10 2 68 24 W 3 3 3 2 NW10 4902 W 6 41960 F 07/03-21 45 10 2 63 29 W 2 2 3 2 NW10 1097 W 3 3840 P 07/03-22 45 10 2 61 32 W 2 2 3 2 NW12 808 W 5 2860 P 07/03-23 45 10 2 59 33 SW 2 2 4 2 NW12 519 SW 5 1881 P 07/04-00 9 0 0 57 35 SW 3 3 4 1 NW12 230 SW 5 901 P 07/04-01 9 0 0 56 37 SW 3 3 4 1 NW13 216 SW 5 921 P 07/04-02 9 0 0 54 39 SW 5 5 4 1 NW14 202 SW 6 941 P 07/04-03 9 0 0 53 41 W 5 5 4 1 W14 188 SW 6 961 P 07/04-04 9 0 0 52 43 W 6 6 4 1 NW14 185 SW 7 1037 P 07/04-05 9 0 0 52 43 W 7 7 4 1 NW13 182 W 7 1114 P 07/04-06 28 0 0 52 43 W 7 7 4 1 N10 179 W 8 1191 P 07/04-07 28 0 0 54 40 W 7 7 4 1 N 9 834 W 8 5284 P 07/04-08 28 0 0 58 34 W 6 6 3 1 N 8 1490 W 7 9378 P 07/04-09 28 0 0 63 29 W 5 5 3 1 N 7 2145 NW 7 13471 P 07/04-10 28 0 0 67 25 NW 3 3 3 1 NE 5 5310 NW 6 19038 P 07/04-11 28 0 0 70 23 N 3 3 3 1 NE 3 8476 N 5 24605 P 07/04-12 63 20 4 72 22 NE 3 3 3 3 NE 3 11642 NE 3 30171 P 07/04-13 63 20 4 73 22 NE 3 3 3 3 E 3 11587 NE 2 26890 P 07/04-14 63 20 4 74 22 NE 5 5 2 3 S 5 11532 E 2 23608 P 07/04-15 63 20 4 74 22 NE 5 5 2 3 S 6 11477 SE 2 20326 P 07/04-16 63 20 4 75 23 N 5 5 2 3 S 7 11211 SE 3 29920 P 07/04-17 63 20 4 74 24 NW 3 3 2 3 S 8 10944 S 5 39513 P 07/04-18 65 20 4 73 25 NW 3 3 2 3 S 9 10677 S 6 49107 F 07/04-19 65 20 4 71 27 NW 3 3 2 3 S13 7715 S 5 33727 P 07/04-20 65 20 4 67 30 W 2 2 2 3 S16 4752 SE 3 18348 P 07/04-21 65 20 4 63 35 W 2 2 2 3 S18 1789 SE 2 2968 P 07/04-22 65 20 4 61 38 W 3 3 2 3 S15 1511 SE 5 4579 P 07/04-23 65 20 4 59 40 S 5 5 2 3 SW12 1233 SE 7 6189 P 07/05-00 54 0 0 57 42 SE 5 5 2 1 W 9 955 SE 9 7800 P 07/05-01 54 0 0 56 45 SE 3 3 2 1 W12 973 SE 8 6454 P 07/05-02 54 0 0 55 48 E 2 2 2 1 W15 991 E 6 5108 P 07/05-03 54 0 0 53 52 CALM 1 2 1 W17 1009 E 5 3762 P 07/05-04 54 0 0 52 55 CALM 1 2 1 W17 754 SE 3 2750 P 07/05-05 54 0 0 52 57 NW 2 2 2 1 W15 499 S 3 1738 P 07/05-06 54 0 1 52 59 W 3 3 2 1 W13 244 SW 3 726 P 07/05-07 54 0 1 54 57 SW 3 3 2 1 W12 655 SW 3 2327 P 07/05-08 54 0 1 57 53 S 3 3 2 1 W12 1065 S 3 3927 P 07/05-09 54 0 1 60 49 SE 3 3 2 1 W12 1475 S 5 5527 P 07/05-10 54 0 1 63 45 SE 3 3 2 1 W12 2893 SW 6 15787 P 07/05-11 54 0 1 66 43 S 5 5 2 1 W13 4311 SW 6 26047 P 07/05-12 77 40 18 67 42 S 5 5 2 4 W14 5729 SW 7 36307 P 07/05-13 77 40 18 68 41 S 5 5 2 4 W17 6414 SW 7 38527 P 07/05-14 77 40 18 69 41 SE 5 5 2 4 W21 7100 SW 7 40746 F 07/05-15 77 40 18 69 41 E 5 5 2 4 W23 7785 SW 7 42965 F 07/05-16 77 40 18 69 40 E 5 5 2 4 W25 7291 SW 6 39945 P 07/05-17 77 40 18 69 41 E 5 5 2 4 W26 6798 SW 6 36926 P 07/05-18 77 40 18 68 42 E 5 5 2 4 W29 6304 SW 6 33907 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MIKE HARDIN REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20110702.STORM.01/BOU